NOTE FROM JACE:
One of the more frequently asked questions lately has been “What do you think the market is going to do?” My usual smart ass remark is “It’s going to do one of 3 things…” 1) It’s going to go higher. 2) It’s going to go lower. Or 3) It’s going to stay the same. Most people just look at me with that deer in the headlight look! However, this is my feeling for the remainder of the year. The fat cattle market is what the feeder and calf market eventually gets based on. History shows that April is usually short on fat cattle. June has an abundance of fat cattle. But, because of the dry weather through winter and no wheat pasture, all of the yearlings and the majority of calves have already been placed in the feedlots. This means two things… 1) April is going to have more cattle than usual. 2) Only so many pounds can be put on a fat calf. The bean counters say there are more cattle out there. But, due to the drought in the Dakotas and the neighboring states, this makes more than normal placements in the feed yards. Bottom line (in my opinion) is there is going to be less tonnage of meat available and 1-2% higher headcount. Meaning, in April I think we won’t see the market as high as usual and in June, we won’t see it as low as usual. It’s a very unique year this year because of the wheat pasture availability or lack thereof. If we just go off the numbers, we should be in good shape this fall. But, with the government placing tariffs on other countries, will that put the market in a tail spin? I don’t necessarily think it’s a bad thing (talking tariffs in general). They are not going to be able to import cheap beef and deflate the value of our own USA homegrown beef. Then maybe we will not be eating foreign beef that is labeled “USDA inspected.” We raise enough cattle to provide and feed our own country. We don’t need or want beef from other countries. Our beef is self-regulated and government regulated to the highest standards. Other countries allow unclean practices in general. I heard a rumor that 10% of all the hamburger that comes into America from one of the foreign countries is actually horsemeat! I remember when I was younger, the government put in the “Pure Food Act.” It put many small packinghouses, butchers, and grocery stores out of business. These other foreign countries don’t have the same standards of sanitation and production regulations in place to provide hygienic and clean food. America is held to a much higher standard as far as pesticides, antibiotics, hormones, preservatives, etc. to assure our foods are the most pure and untainted.
With all this being said…. I think the market is going to do one of 3 things…. LOL!
Seriously though, I think it could get softer in the spring and early summer but the fall time should be as good or better than last fall. Moisture will have the biggest impact on everything discussed above. …Time will tell…
The market on Wednesday was very active on all classes of cattle. We will have a lite run on Wednesday and have around 1200 bred heifers, cows, & pairs on Saturday, March 17th and for our 63rd Anniversary sale on Wednesday, March 28, we anticipate over 6000 cattle. See you Wednesday and Saturday at the sales!